Despite the OPEC output cuts (promises?), various supply disruptions in the Gulf & the worsening situation in Venezuela, WTI hasn’t been able to break out of the 14 month sideways range (42-52).
Now come the effects of Hurricane Harvey and the US sanctions on Venezuela. Can these two factors really push WTI out of the range, upwards? I highly doubt it. I expect the effects of both to dissipate soon and WTI to keep trading in the established range (just like how the the recent drop in Libya output was ignored by the Oil markets).
Long Term traders are looking for a breakout one way or the other but the fact that it has stayed within the range despite all the adverse news (such adverse news being positive for Oil) tells us if & when the breakout happens, it is more likely to be a bearish breakout than a bullish one.
While one strategy is to wait for a breakout (up or down) and then take a medium term position, another good strategy may be to fade every spike within the range as long as the range top is not violated.
Short term trading: The 200 DMA at 49.64 might be a good Resistance for this week despite all the adverse news. However, if WTI breaks that resistance and runs above 50, I will be adding to my short positions in the 51-52 region. My near term targets continue to be 45, 42 & eventually 39.