No change to the portfolio since the previous update (it is a big feat that I have managed to avoid the temptations to buy, for more than 2 months now!). I am still hesitant to buy any of my favorites as the signals are still unclear. The other reason is that Bitcoin volatility has died down quite a bit in the last few weeks and so it may make sense to buy it on strength rather than trying to pick a bottom. So here it is:
BTC: Tech indicators currently appear neutral. The 50 DMA is around 6620. Hence, will buy only if it clears the 6650 – 6700 zone.
BCH: Watching the price closely. Will be buying if it jumps above 500.
XRP: Will buy if it clears the Keltner resistance at 0.47. And will possibly add more if it clears the 200 DMA (currently 52c) with aplomb.
XLM: This is the only token that currently exists in my portfolio. The Stop for the current position is 15c. I would certainly like to add more XLM but only if it clears 24c.
Portfolio status as of Oct 14, 2018:
5000 XLM @ 0.20 1,000 (Stop Loss 15c. Target: 40C)
TOTAL 14,120 (Original investment was $15,000 in Jan 2018)
Click here for the previous update (Sep 15, 2018)
Posted in bitcoin, charts, crypto, Economy, Uncategorized
Tagged BCH, bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, BTC, crypto, Lumen, ripple, token, XLM, XRP
One should be always thankful for the Stop Losses. They did save me again this time when Bitcoin and other tokens got whacked. I got stopped out of Bitcoin at 6400 and Bitcoin Cash at 520 as the Stop Losses triggered. (Click here for the previous update from Sep 1)
Since then, I haven’t bought back BTC or BCH though Bitcoin is now back above 6400. As a result, only XLM is still in the portfolio and rest all is in cash.
I expect another dip this month for BTC and the other cryptos before they consolidate and move up again. I am going to basically wait for that dip to re-enter. I have no entry targets right now for BTC and BCH but when the charts give out signals, I will post my thoughts here and on Twitter / StockTwits.
Click here for the Sep 1 update
Click here for the July 29 update
Click here to learn “Trading Strategies & Risk Management”
Posted in bitcoin, charts, crypto, Economy, stocks, Uncategorized
Tagged BCH, bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, BTC, crypto, XLM
I am extremely pleased to report that today (Sep 14, 2018) we are completing one year since the official launch of Flourish Alerts. Many thanks to our supporters and patrons without whom this would not have been possible.
We have had our share of success and failures over the last 12 months but overall, the performance has been generally good to great except for a couple of bad months. As I always say, the focus is not on winning all the trades (which is impossible given the market-risks we face everyday) but on winning a majority of trades and to consistently win more than we lose by adapting proper trading techniques and risk management.
Flourish Alerts is open to new subscribers now. You can find more details here or write to me at: email@example.com for details.
Training on Risk Management:
On this wonderful occasion, I am also pleased to announce that the next 2 batches of classes (online, live) for the training program on “Trading Strategies and Risk Management” will be held in October 2018. You can register here for the programs.
In case you would like to learn this program at your own pace, a video-based training curriculum is also available (at a lower price). Please write to me at: firstname.lastname@example.org if interested.
At Flourish Alerts, we look forward to another great year. Happy Trading!!
Posted in bitcoin, charts, crypto, Economy, Forex, Gold, Natural Gas, Oil, stocks, Uncategorized
Tagged Alerts, charts, risk management, stocks, technical analysis, trading, training
We all know that markets carry high uncertainty & risks. Despite that we are all here to win. However, trading is not about being right all the time but about maximizing your wins, cutting your losses & maximizing your overall returns with 3 things –
(a) Adapting a proper trading strategy
(b) Formulating a trade plan that has the right set-up & an ideal Risk-Reward element
(c) Exercising discipline with Risk Management techniques
If these 3 basic things are taken care of, you can be a winner. I lose 3 out of 10 trades on an average. But when I win, I win big. When I lose, I lose small. But how? Just by adapting a rule based trading system that covers all the three elements listed above.
If you want to learn more about the system I use or about Trading Strategies or about Risk-Managing your trades, please click here
I found this article very useful – the Top Ten Trading Psychology Myths (by Dr Gary Dayton)
- People are born traders. While it is true that certain personal characteristics make it easier to trade, no one is born a trader. One of the main themes of the Market Wizards book written by Jack Schwager is that almost none of the market wizards was successful from the start. They all worked hard at it.
- You have to have a high IQ to trade. Just not true. In some ways, an above average IQ may be a hindrance. Trading is a human performance activity where very strong intellectual abilities are unnecessary.
- Top traders are successful because they have the “right trading personality.” There is no such thing as the “right trading personality.” Researches have been unable to find a strong correlation between personality type and trading success. It is important, however, to understand your personal characteristics and how they may help and hinder your trading.
- Trading is easy. It sure looks that way, doesn’t it? Just draw a few lines on the chart, watch your indicators, and follow the price bars. The truth is that trading is a difficult business to master. It involves different skill sets and abilities from what are needed in most other professions and careers. The trader must understand his or her personal strengths and limitations and develop specific skills to deal with the mental and emotional demands of trading. The later skills are the most difficult to develop and the most overlooked.
- You must be tough, hard charging, and fearless to be successful. That’s more media hype than anything else. It glorifies a strong ego, which is a detriment in trading. The most successful traders I know quietly do their research, study the charts, and patiently wait for the right moment. They strive to keep their ego out of their trading.
- You must trade without emotions. If you are human, that’s impossible. More importantly, when you understand your emotions you will realize they are assets, not liabilities. The real keys are: 1) to be aware of how your emotions interact with and influence your trading, and 2) to develop the skills needed to trade with them.
- Top traders are usually right about the market. Top traders have many, many scratch and losing trades. Top traders are at the top because they exercise good risk control, limit the amount of loss from any given trade, and have developed a psychological edge that allows them to be unfazed by small loosing trades. Most of their trading consists of modest profits and very small losses. When conditions are right, they step up size and let the profitable trades run.
- Paper trading is useless-it’s not a real trade without money behind it. If you aren’t paper trading, you are doing yourself a disservice. You should always be paper trading your trading ideas. Why limit your education and experience by the amount of capital you have? Paper trading keeps you sharp; you learn the conditions under which your trading ideas work best. Where else can you get such vital education at so little cost?
- Master the technical skills and you will be successful. This is where most traders spend the vast majority of their time, but it’s only part of the picture. You also have to learn important performance skills. Traders should spend as much-if not more-time learning to develop their psychological edge as they do in developing their technical trading edge.
- Trading is stressful. It certainly can be stressful, and it certainly is stressful for many. It doesn’t have to be. Successful traders have a certain mind-set. They put little importance on any given trade. Their focus is on the long haul. They know that if they attend to the aspects of trading that are within their control (i.e., trade selection, entry, risk control, and trade management) the profits will take care of themselves.
Here are a few interesting charts that I had posted on Twitter & StockTwits during early August:
Ripple XRP (Aug 8 chart): And you know where it exactly went!! (below 22 cents)
Ethereum ETH (Aug 8 chart): “Expect $100 drop” & ETH dropped 102 to hit a low of 257
Bitcoin BTC (Aug 7 chart): Went from 7000 to the “potential 6000” and then bounced. Now waiting to see if it can break above the upper Trend Line Resistance
Semi-conductors SMH (Aug 7 chart). It is getting close to that trend line Resistance now
AVGO (Aug 7 chart): Hanging in there. I still have a high conviction on that 160 target
TWTR (Aug 8 chart): Bearish as long as it stays below 36.
BABA (Aug 8 chart): Did touch the 165-166 support zone as expected and then bounced to 180. Now we can expect another test of 166 if the tariff talks with China end in stalemate.
TSLA (Aug 7 chart): Broke above 360 only because of that popular (or notorious?) “Funding Secured” tweet but now it has broken below the 50 WEEK MA and even below $300 (currently down 23% from the post-tweet high of 387).
Current forecast for TSLA: Still bearish.. Could test the 265-270 zone very soon (see the Aug 30 chart below) and if the trend line breaks, possibly will go to 220-240
Posted in charts, Economy, stocks, Uncategorized
Tagged AVGO, BABA, BTC, ETH, SMH, TSLA, TWTR, XRP