BABA – appears bullish medium term

Flourish Alerts – click here to view the 3 month performance

BABA looks bullish for the medium term after hitting a low of 165 recently. The upward surge seems quite bullish and we may see the short term target of 183 met soon. BABA has been firing on all cylinders with a tremendous growth in revenues. Fundamentals and technicals currently seem to favor an UP move. For Jan / Feb, I have a target of 190+

BABA Dec 5

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WTI Crude

OPEC delivers on its promise of planned output cuts along with Russia this time. However, US shale output has been picking up and the crude production in the U.S reached 9.68 mbpd recently and is almost on par with the top two – Saudi Arabia & Russia. The year 2018 could see some pressure on crude prices despite OPEC cuts as the US keeps increasing its output, encouraged by the 100% jump in crude prices from the 2016 lows.

However for the short term, I expect crude prices to increase and WTI may hit 60-63 before a reversal driven by the increasing US output. The chart below of course is a 4 Hour chart and talks about a very short term target (for Dec). I will post another chart next week for the medium term outlook

WTI Dec 7 2017

 

 

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Tesla – can it live up to its name?

Short term volatility is in full swing for this cult stock. Medium term is questionable especially with the delays in Model 3 deliveries. 285 is a critical support that bulls will need to defend. If not, medium term target = 240

TSLA Nov 29

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Performance of Flourish Alerts (Sep-Nov)

Flourish Alerts will be completing 3 months of service by Dec 15, 2017. The Alert service focuses on tech stocks, ETFs and 3x ETNs (Crude, NatGas, Gold Miners, Biotech). Here is an update on the performance as of November 30

Closed Trades Sep 2017 (2 weeks): Winners 5, Losers 5, Total 10

Closed Trades Oct 2017: Winners 15, Losers 8, Total 23

Closed Trades Nov 2017: Winners 11, Losers 4, Total 15

Backed by thorough research and technical analysis, we have been consistently improving the rate of wins over the last two months. The eventual goal of Flourish Alerts is to achieve a 80 – 90% success rate on a consistent basis

Here is a list of winners & losers for Nov 2017: 

Alerts – Trades Won:

# JNUG Long: Entry 14.67, Exit 15.25

# TSLA Short ($305 Puts): Entry 3.15, Exit 7.10

# ATVI Long: Average Entry 60.65, Average Exit 63.77

# UGAZ Long: Average entry at 8.59. Average exit 9.66

# TSLA Long ($310 calls) Average cost 2.57. Average Exit 4.85

# DGAZ Long: Average entry 23.52. Average exit 25.40

# QCOM Long: Entry 65.65, Exit 66.45

# UWT Long: Entry 19.65, Exit 20.75

# UGAZ Long: Entry 8.18, Exit 9.70

# TSLA short ($317.50 puts): Entry 2.80, Exit 7.70

# SMH short: Average Entry 99.90, Exit 98.90

Alerts – Trades Lost

# GLD $125 calls (Nov 17): Entry 1.25, full write-off

# INTC $44 puts (Nov 17): Entry 0.63, full write-off

# INTC $45 puts (Nov 17): Entry 0.40, Exit 0.34 , Lost 6c

# UVXY $15 calls (Dec 01): Entry 0.26, Exit 0.23, Lost 3c

How does the Alerts system work?  Alerts are sent to all Members by email every morning, plus through follow-up emails during the day as needed. Time-critical updates & instant alerts are posted on my Twitter feed (@Flourish_Venkat) during the U.S. trading session. Alerts include planned entry, exit and stop for every trade plan.

If you would like to subscribe to Flourish Alerts, please visit www.FlourishRM.com/services 

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Update on Gold (Nov)

After a month-long consolidation in the 1266-1286 zone, Gold saw a nice breakout last Friday. It now needs to stay above the 50 DMA (1290 currently) for the bulls to target 1310 and 1328 to begin with. My long term bullishness got a shot in the arm with that Friday breakout. Also, the seasonal demand for Gold may be working in our favor. Just take a look at the Gold price moves (Dec-Mar) for the last 4 years. The two charts below should explain why I am bullish on Gold

Gold Nov 19 (1)

Gold Nov 19 (2)

Click here for the prior article on Gold and the long term forecast (Oct update)

 

 

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Gold Update / Oct 2017

What a fall for Gold! That was a drop of around $100 in a matter of 4 weeks, after touching a high of 1362 in Sep 2017.  The good thing is Gold has reversed its bearishness at 1263 which was the exact level at which it broke out above its long term trend line earlier in July 2017.

Currently Gold appears to have turned bullish on the daily and weekly charts. With the stock market at an all time high, greed index at extremes and VIX at its lowest range despite a host of uncertainties and geopolitical risks plaguing the markets, Gold and Silver are expected to gain further strength from here as reality dawns and market participants start chasing safe havens. Of course there are going to be seasonal swings within the overall bullish trend so one can trade Gold both ways using short term charts. For the long term enthusiasts, here are two critical things to note –

(a) Gold will be LT bullish as long as it stays above the 1255/60 levels. Below that it will become MT bearish. A break below 1200 however, may make it LT bearish and if that happens, I won’t be surprised if pundits start calling for 1000 again.

(b) Gold’s major LT trend move was when it dropped from 1910 to 1050 (Year 2011 – 2015). The first attempt at retracement ended at 38.2% FIB in 2016. The recent attempt in Sep ended just short of the same 38.2% level. I would expect the next attempt to target the 50% FIB retracement level at 1480 (see charts below)

Gold – Futures chart with new targets (long term)Gold LT Oct 9

Gold – FIB retracement for the long term moveGold LT FIBs Oct 9

I have also attempted a simple forecast with major levels that we are targeting for Gold between now and mid 2018. As I said before, there will be a lot of short term swing moves within the overall trend but in the chart, I have only plotted some important levels that I expect will be tested over the next 10 months. Happy trading!

Gold Forecast (Oct 2017 to Jun/Jul 2018)Gold LT forecast Oct 9

The link to the earlier article on Gold is here

 

 

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Managing the Emotions of Trading- Webinar Video

Training Programs on Trading Strategies & Risk Management – click here

Here is a video on “Managing the Emotions of Trading”. The webinar on Managing the Emotions of Trading was conducted twice in September. If you have any questions or comments, you can post here or write to me at Flourish.RMI@gmail.com. Thanks! Venkat

The material contained in this video is for educational purposes only. I went through a steep – and expensive – learning curve in controlling & managing the trading emotions. But you don’t have to!

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