Markets: Some key charts / forecasts from Sep, Oct and Nov 2018

The markets have certainly turned medium term bearish, and the bearishness has accelerated since the mid-terms as the US-China trade deal remains elusive (no surprises here though). I am still betting on SPY 255 and QQQ 152 to be reached before Dec 15. Following are some of the key charts / forecasts that I had posted on StockTwits / Twitter over the last 2 months:

Though I have been bearish since mid-September, this XLF chart was the most important one (Banking & Financials which probably remains the Lead indicator for the markets) that helped me conclude with conviction that the markets were really in for a deep correction over the medium term, despite the booming US economy. The technical positioning of QQQ along with AMZN and AAPL further helped confirm my bearish theory for Oct – Dec.

XLF – Critical Bearish Alert (posted on Oct 12):XLF Oct 12 2018.PNG

QQQ – Bearish Chart (Oct 10)  with a forecast update on Oct 20QQQ Oct 10, 2018

NDX – chart from Oct 20. A target of 6400 was set “if the 50 WEEK MA broke”ndx Oct 20 2018

AAPL – Sept forecast for a drop to the 50 DMA and possibly to the 200 DMAAAPL Sep 10

AMZN – I had forecast the possibility of a parabola break in July 2018 (click here for the forecast). On Oct 10, the break was confirmed and targets were set as below. So far, we have met only the first target (1448) but I do expect target 2 to be met by the end of the year. AMZN Oct 10 2018

AMD – a parabola break was in the offing . Here is the chart dated Sep 18 with forecast targets. The targets were exceeded in this case as AMD dropped to a low of 17.AMD Sep 18 2018

SQ – Another parabola break was in and targets were set (Oct 16)SQ Oct 16 2018

XBI – Oct 24 chart (XBI tested the target zone of 74-75 in Nov)XBI Oct 24 2018

SPY – Forecast dated Nov 7. From the Nov 7 level of 281, the target of 265 was met on Nov 19 – in just 10 trading sessions!SPY Nov 7 2018

QQQ – expecting the 155 level to be taken out soon. The low so far: 157QQQ Nov 7 2018.PNG

QQQ – Phase 1, 2 and 3. Should lead all the way to 155 and possibly 152QQQ mid Nov 2018.PNG

NFLX – updated chart dt Nov 18. The last target (213) from 400 level is still pending. Expecting it to be hit before Jan 31, 2019NFLX Nov 19, 2018

NVDA – chart dated Nov 19. Another parabola that broke. Expecting 128 to be met in Dec/JanNVDA Nov 19 2018.PNG

And finally, looking for FB to meet its fate (115) very soon.FB Nov 19 2018.PNG

 

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Crypto Portfolio Update (Nov 25, 2018)

Well, all is obviously not well in the crypto world. BTC and other coins have been crashing and the crypto bearishness has been accelerating ever since BTC broke the critical 5500 mark. Did not bode well for my portfolio but then, what are Stop Losses for? One should be always thankful for the Stops.

So, here we go once more as more seeds of doubts about Bitcoin and cryptos in general are being sown. One thing is clear – unless Bitcoin, the leader turns around, no other crypto is going to see the light of the day.

Overnight, BTC crashed below 4000 and for now looks set to test the 2500-2700 level. I am glad I stuck to my views on BTC and did not buy again as it did not go above my buy threshold of 6800. 

Since the last update on Nov 5, I exited BCH (lost $600 on 5 BCH) and XLM (lost $750 on 10000 XLM), as my pre-determined Stops were hit. Now I am left with only XRP.  Since XRP is the only one remaining in the portfolio I am removing the Stop on it (it can still go to zero but I can afford to take that risk for now). So my portfolio looks like this as of Nov 25 morning:

5,000 XRP @0.48                    2,400           (CMV at 36c = 1,800)

Cash                                           10,370

Total                                           12,770           (original investment: $15,000 in Jan 2018)

On the day I started this portfolio in mid-Jan 2018, BTC was at 11,000 and XRP was at 1.15. As representative samples, they have dropped by 65% and 69% respectively from those levels in 10 months. Thanks to the Stop Losses (and some profit bookings), my portfolio in comparison has seen only an erosion of 19%. Not bad but it is still an erosion. I will however look to build the portfolio again when BTC drops below 3000 (note I am not saying “if” but “when”). That may be the time to buy again. Till then, putting the portfolio to sleep.

Click here for the previous update (Nov 5, 2018)

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Crypto Portfolio Update (Nov 5)

Though Bitcoin is still languishing below the 6500 levels, the alt-coins have finally started moving above the critical levels mentioned in the previous update (Oct 4) and thus triggered the following long positions. On Bitcoin, I am still waiting – it has to clear the 6700 level for me to get in with some conviction.

BCH – bought 5 at 520, as it jumped above the trigger level of 500 (Nov 4)

XRP – bought 5000 at 0.48 as it cleared the trigger of 47c (Nov 4)

XLM – added 5000 at 0.25 as it cleared the trigger of 24c (Nov 5)

Here is the updated status of the portfolio as of Nov 5, 2018:

5000 XLM @ 0.20                1,000         (old lot) (Stop Loss 15c. Target: 40c)

5000 XLM @ 0.25                1,250         (Stop Loss 15c, Target: 40c)

5000 XRP @ 0.48                2,400         (Stop Loss 35c, Target: open)

5 BCH @ 520                         2,600         (Stop Loss 400, Target: open)

Cash                                         6,870         (pending BTC buy when it jumps >6700)

TOTAL                                    14,120         (Original investment was $15,000 in Jan 2018)

Click here for the previous update (Oct 14, 2018)

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Crypto Portfolio Update (Oct 14, 2018)

No change to the portfolio since the previous update (it is a big feat that I have managed to avoid the temptations to buy, for more than 2 months now!). I am still hesitant to buy any of my favorites as the signals are still unclear. The other reason is that Bitcoin volatility has died down quite a bit in the last few weeks and so it may make sense to buy it on strength rather than trying to pick a bottom. So here it is:

BTC: Tech indicators currently appear neutral. The 50 DMA is around 6620. Hence, will buy only if it clears the 6650 – 6700 zone.

BCH: Watching the price closely. Will be buying if it jumps above 500.

XRP: Will buy if it clears the Keltner resistance at 0.47. And will possibly add more if it clears the 200 DMA (currently 52c) with aplomb.

XLM: This is the only token that currently exists in my portfolio. The Stop for the current position is 15c. I would certainly like to add more XLM but only if it clears 24c.

Portfolio status as of Oct 14, 2018: 

5000 XLM @ 0.20                1,000         (Stop Loss 15c. Target: 40C)

Cash                                        13,120

TOTAL                                    14,120          (Original investment was $15,000 in Jan 2018)

Click here for the previous update (Sep 15, 2018)

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Fanaticism, Blurred reality and Risk Management

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Crypto Portfolio Update (Sep 15 2018)

One should be always thankful for the Stop Losses. They did save me again this time when Bitcoin and other tokens got whacked.  I got stopped out of Bitcoin at 6400 and Bitcoin Cash at 520 as the Stop Losses triggered. (Click here for the previous update from Sep 1)

Since then, I haven’t bought back BTC or BCH though Bitcoin is now back above 6400.  As a result, only XLM is still in the portfolio and rest all is in cash.

I expect another dip this month for BTC and the other cryptos before they consolidate and move up again. I am going to basically wait for that dip to re-enter. I have no entry targets right now for BTC and BCH but when the charts give out signals, I will post my thoughts here and on Twitter / StockTwits.

Click here for the Sep 1 update

Click here for the July 29 update

Click here to learn “Trading Strategies & Risk Management”

 

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Flourish Alerts – today is our First Anniversary!

Hello folks,

I am extremely pleased to report that today (Sep 14, 2018) we are completing one year since the official launch of Flourish Alerts. Many thanks to our supporters and patrons without whom this would not have been possible.

We have had our share of success and failures over the last 12 months but overall, the performance has been generally good to great except for a couple of bad months. As I always say, the focus is not on winning all the trades (which is impossible given the market-risks we face everyday) but on winning a majority of trades and to consistently win more than we lose by adapting proper trading techniques and risk management.

Flourish Alerts is open to new subscribers now. You can find more details here or write to me at: flourish.alerts@gmail.com for details.

Training on Risk Management:

On this wonderful occasion, I am also pleased to announce that the next 2 batches of classes (online, live) for the training program on “Trading Strategies and Risk Management” will be held in October 2018. You can register here for the programs.

In case you would like to learn this program at your own pace, a video-based training curriculum is also available (at a lower price). Please write to me at: flourish.alerts@gmail.com if interested.

At Flourish Alerts, we look forward to another great year. Happy Trading!!

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