The markets have certainly turned medium term bearish, and the bearishness has accelerated since the mid-terms as the US-China trade deal remains elusive (no surprises here though). I am still betting on SPY 255 and QQQ 152 to be reached before Dec 15. Following are some of the key charts / forecasts that I had posted on StockTwits / Twitter over the last 2 months:
Though I have been bearish since mid-September, this XLF chart was the most important one (Banking & Financials which probably remains the Lead indicator for the markets) that helped me conclude with conviction that the markets were really in for a deep correction over the medium term, despite the booming US economy. The technical positioning of QQQ along with AMZN and AAPL further helped confirm my bearish theory for Oct – Dec.
XLF – Critical Bearish Alert (posted on Oct 12):
QQQ – Bearish Chart (Oct 10) with a forecast update on Oct 20
NDX – chart from Oct 20. A target of 6400 was set “if the 50 WEEK MA broke”
AAPL – Sept forecast for a drop to the 50 DMA and possibly to the 200 DMA
AMZN – I had forecast the possibility of a parabola break in July 2018 (click here for the forecast). On Oct 10, the break was confirmed and targets were set as below. So far, we have met only the first target (1448) but I do expect target 2 to be met by the end of the year.
AMD – a parabola break was in the offing . Here is the chart dated Sep 18 with forecast targets. The targets were exceeded in this case as AMD dropped to a low of 17.
SQ – Another parabola break was in and targets were set (Oct 16)
XBI – Oct 24 chart (XBI tested the target zone of 74-75 in Nov)
SPY – Forecast dated Nov 7. From the Nov 7 level of 281, the target of 265 was met on Nov 19 – in just 10 trading sessions!
QQQ – expecting the 155 level to be taken out soon. The low so far: 157
QQQ – Phase 1, 2 and 3. Should lead all the way to 155 and possibly 152
NFLX – updated chart dt Nov 18. The last target (213) from 400 level is still pending. Expecting it to be hit before Jan 31, 2019
NVDA – chart dated Nov 19. Another parabola that broke. Expecting 128 to be met in Dec/Jan
And finally, looking for FB to meet its fate (115) very soon.