Japanese Yen – at a critical juncture, may dictate big moves in Gold & Stocks

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You want to see risk off? Then you want to see the Yen strengthening. You want to see risk on? Then you wish the Yen weakens

FXY (Guggenheim Currencyshares Japanese Yen) is the one to watch if you are interested in long term moves in Gold and stocks. FXY is more or less directly correlated to Gold.. And when panic sets in the markets, you see FXY strengthening beyond normal, and vice versa.

Currently the FXY is at a critical juncture. Having broken below the 200 week & 50 week MA’s in Nov 2016 (and remaining weak for the last 7-8 months), FXY is now knocking at those two levels again (both the MAs are now very close to each other as can be seen from the chart). A break above followed by a surge would be awesome for Gold while it might set an interim top for SPX. Obviously the Yen is not the only indicator that decides market movements but it is certainly very closely correlated with Gold. So watch it at least for some fun!

FXY Aug 2

And if you wonder what is happening with Gold, here is the article I posted on July 28 that explains where Gold is facing a major LT resistance & how it is still stuck in the triangle. Happy trading!

Gold nearing a break-out?

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Managing Risk in Trading

 

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RM Course

Launching a course on Risk Management Strategies – classes commence  in August 2017. This course is meant for Novice / Intermediate traders who want to take their trading to the next level & become successful.

Start date: August 17.   Registration Deadline: August 7

Details of the Program can be found here

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WTI – an update to the earlier post

WTI closed the week strong – fueled by the promise of more cuts from SA and the possibility of US sanctions on Venezuela & the consequent supply disruptions the sanctions can cause.  This is going to a tough week for both bulls and bears as all eyes will be on the Venezuela situation.

Venezuela was once a rich country but is currently in absolute chaos & abyss. Amid violent protests from the opposition and citizens who are demanding democratic norms be upheld, Venezuela is voting today (July 30)  to elect a legislative body tasked with rewriting the constitution. President Nicolas Maduro has predicted a big victory in the election of the 545-member citizens’ Constituent Assembly empowered to dissolve the opposition-controlled parliament and rewrite the constitution. Many countries are not in favor of Maduro rewriting the constitution and the US has threatened an embargo if Maduro doesn’t return to more democratic ways of running his government. Venezuela currently produces about 2M bpd of oil (and is heavily dependent on oil exports for their survival)  and a US embargo would put them at great peril. This is not a “possible risk” like the N Korea situation but this is a “clear & present risk” for the short term at least as the voting is under way today, amid violent protests.

So I would expect this week to be highly volatile. Good to keep away from WTI for a few days until the situation clears up. On the technical front, Oil closed the week pretty strong – above both the 200 Week MA & the 200 DMA. While this makes WTI bullish for the near term, it continues to be bearish on the long term charts. (Please refer the earlier blog post dated July 27 below as to why I consider WTI long term bearish).

https://crystalballing.wordpress.com/2017/07/27/wti-the-long-short-of-it-from-a-long-term-perspective/ 

Happy trading!

Here is the CNN link for live updates on Venezuela:  http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/americas/venezuela-on-the-ground/index.html

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Top Six Traits of Successful Traders

Here is a simple list of what makes some traders shine. These are not hard to master – all you have to do is try!

Trading with a Plan

Successful (and professional) traders don’t trade at whim. They evaluate the technical & fundamental factors of a security and look at proper trade set ups / opportunities before committing to the trade. They know what their entries & exits would be. They have a stop loss in place or they have a plan B if things go wrong. Over time, they build a system and a strategy to get consistency in returns.

Conviction

Conviction is a key attribute. Successful traders don’t want to engage in gambling and hence they wait for a proper set up to materialize. (Well, there is always a temptation even for successful folks to gamble but if that is what you do regularly, then you are better off in Vegas rather than in the stock markets). Staying committed to your conviction once the trade is in place is equally important. No one can win all the trades they enter – the markets are so unpredictable – but those who stay disciplined certainly have better odds at winning. So one should focus on the right processes & making money the right way instead of just “trying to be right” all the time

Patience & Discipline

One of the key factors to success is one’s own patience.  Patience is a virtue and as mentioned above, successful folks wait patiently for a trade “set-up” that meets their requirements. What this means is waiting for a few hours or days or even weeks for the right set up to emerge. Patience is required not just for the right entry but also for a planned trade to result in proper closure. These traders set their levels and wait for the results. They don’t change their mind every minute just because they see some movement in the price up or down. To do this, they train their mind & their emotions to stay on path and develop a set of rules. If your goal is to make money by trading stocks, you need to develop a system that lets you do it. Once you develop the system, more patience & discipline are required to play by the rules you set for yourself. Winning can’t be & won’t be far away if you do that.

Risk Management

Stock markets are risky. They can be unkind & treacherous. When you start trading, you start with a disadvantage – be it the broker commission or the bid-ask spread that you see every day eating into your capital. Besides that there is the market risk. So what do professional traders do? I haven’t listed the top traits in any particular order but this Risk Management trait would be number 2 trait in my books after the number 1 trait which is “have a trade plan”.  No trade plan or strategy would be complete if it lacks the Risk Management element. Stop losses are a popular way of limiting your risk. But to succeed, one needs to identify & use the right (and reasonable) stop loss levels.  Hedging is another way to manage the risk and successful traders always use stop losses or hedging techniques.

Keeping Emotions Out

Whether you trade as a hobby or for a living, one needs to learn the art of avoiding emotional trading. I have seen how emotional trading can ruin bank balances and lives. At times, even smart traders who have very good trading plans & strategies fail miserably because of their lack of skills in this one department – managing emotions and stress. This one trait I would say, is hard to master – and comes with lot of effort in training one’s own mind (and possibly not before some erosion happens to one’s bank balance).

Humility
Another great trait of traders who are truly successful. Not much needs to be said about this. If you understand markets are risky, stay nimble and more importantly humble, learn to accept your mistakes & learn from those mistakes and respect the alternate perspectives of other folks without laughing at them, I would say you have crossed half the bridge to success!

Happy Trading!

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Make or break for the dollar? DXY nearing critical support

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USD is teetering. The DXY is nearing a critical support level – the 200 Week MA..

Below the 200 Week MA, we can’t find much in terms of nearby support. It is so critical that I feel DXY has to bounce at that level. .  I could be wrong & the DXY could crash through but I vote in favor of a big bounce at the 200 Week MA.

A break of support will have major implications for the stock markets, treasuries & gold.

DXY July 28

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Natural Gas – Are the bears winning?

NG is not looking good for the bulls. After several attempts at cracking the 50 week MA, bulls caved in again. Thankfully for them, NG found support at 2.86, very close to the long term trend line support. A break of the TL support will motivate the bears to look for 2.50 (the Feb low). Hopefully, bulls will make another attempt at 3.00/3.10 levels before letting the bears take control again.

NG July 27

 

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Gold nearing a break-out?

The Golden triangle chart I posted on StockTwits in Dec 2016 has remained in tact so far (see charts below). After hitting close to 1300 in May 2017 & then dropping to 1203, Gold has recovered nicely  most of its recent losses and is back at where it was in May ’17.  Two break out attempts above the TL Res this year have failed and now Gold is now making its third attempt to breakout. While a clear break above the trend line can take it to 1300 and beyond, a reversal at the resistance might lead it down to 1244 & 1230 (currently the 50 Week MA & the 200 Week MA)

Current chart:

Gold July 27

The Golden Triangle Chart from Dec 2016

GOLD Dec 20

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WTI – the long & short of it from a long term perspective

OPEC has been trying to stabilize the Oil markets ever since their “market share” strategy failed and the price dropped from 150 to the sub 30 levels. Their attempts to stabilize the markets succeeded only to a limited extent by pushing Oil to the 50+ levels but again, their antics with output cuts have been a failure so far. Now the Saudis are willing to cut more of their production in the interest of saving the oil markets.

Markets have a way of finding their equilibrium with or without such measures. Oil has been in a downtrend for the last three years. With the current US administration’s policy of going aggressively after every source of energy including coal, shale, solar and other alternative energy, OPEC & its leader Saudi Arabia most likely have realized they have lost the price war. Hence the current salvo – Saudis committing to more output cuts while reducing their exports to the USA. Will this measure succeed & take Oil higher or will Oil continue to languish as the US attempts to produce more oil & other forms of energy? Most likely the latter as the long term prospects for Oil are dimming.

While the long term fundamentals are not great, on the technical front, WTI needs to break-out above 55 to get out this 3 year bearish trend. The chart below might be of interest to the folks who have long term interests in WTI and to those trading Oil Futures & derivatives.

WTI LT trend July 26

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Win.. Flourish… Grow!!

Win.. Flourish… Grow!!

This blog site is all about training yourself to get the best out of you. And I am here to assist you reach your goals..

I have been on StockTwits for 3+ years now, sharing my ideas, opinions & thoughts on the markets. If you are serious about trading stocks, mutual funds, options, ETFs and ETNs , StockTwits is a great platform to learn as well as contribute. You can check me out at @flourish on StockTwits.com

I thought it would be nice to have a dedicated blog for my musings & hence this blog site.

I will be posting some thoughts and charts related to the markets & the economy at least twice a week. With close to 20 years of experience in trading Stocks and Forex, I have a lot to share with you. Hopefully, some of you may find my thoughts & this blog useful.

Happy trading!

 

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