Crypto 15k – update

Following entries were triggered last week, last night and this morning..

Crypto Mch 2018Details of the full portfolio & prior updates can be found here

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SPX and NDX

Pretty simple charts. Bearish, self-explanatory. (I posted these charts on StockTwits & Twitter on March 4 and 5)

SPX

SPX March 4 2018

NDX

NDX March 5 2018

Prior note on SPX / SPY and why markets will go down

Latest post on Winning with Simple Charts

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Bitcoin and alt coins – update

Here is a compilation of all the charts / forecasts that I posted on Twitter / StockTwits on the 3rd & 4th of March 2018:

Bitcoin (BTC): Break-out chart, looks good for the bulls

Bitcoin March 3 2018

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls need to quickly reclaim the 50 DMA. Else, in trouble

Ethereum March 4 2018

Litecoin (LTC) – At current prices, may give better returns than ETH in the short run

Litecoin March 4 2018.PNG

Ripple (XRP): Break out of consolidation or a break down?

Ripple March 4 2018

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The parabolic jams & the aftermath

Found two compelling parabolic arc “jams” recently and in both instances, it worked beautifully (and instantly). I am sure this could have been applied to  a lot of stocks & indices considering the bull run we have seen over the last 8 years and the multiple new all time highs in stocks, indices as well as cryptos.

The first one I saw was on ETH (posted to Twitter / StockTwits on Jan 10 2018). What was compelling in this case was that BTC had already started falling while ETH stood strong but clearly the price was getting very close to the curve & so it had no choice but to hit the curve and bite the dust. The forecast chart was posted on Jan 10 and ETH saw a high of 1423 on Jan 13 before falling more than 50% to 700 level by Feb 6.

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

The next one I thought to be interesting was the SPY chart. All 3 indices – SPX, DOW and Nasdaq had similar patterns but I chose to focus on SPY chart and posted this to Twitter / StockTwits on Jan 30, giving the price 1 – 6 weeks to jam against the curve and turn bearish. And the fall started within a week and now I am convinced SPY will soon be hitting the 234 and 218 mark.

SPY Jan 30 2018.PNG

Why 234 & 218? See the current (Feb 12, 2018) forecast on SPY below:

SPY Feb 12 2018.PNG

In my view, the spine of the markets was broken last week and that has absolutely changed the market trend to bearish (not the Long Term trend but the Short Term trend). Blame it on the new Fed chair, inflation, past euphoria, rate hike optimism, politics or profit taking (or the bluemoon-bloodmoon-lunar eclipse) those two days of 1000+ point drops on DOW had certainly shaken the market and changed the market perception.

I expect very big swings & high volatility to continue in February and March and I do not expect a new ATH any time soon as recovering from the lows (and the forecast lows as above) is going to take a lot of time. Having said that, one doesn’t have to be a perma-bear. Though I expect the  market to be overall bearish for the next few weeks, it will provide huge enough swings for smart traders to play both ways, especially with volatile stocks. Happy Trading!

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Cryptos forecast update

Here is the short term forecast update I posted on Twitter / StockTwits on Feb 11.

The forecast period should actually read as “for 2 weeks ending Feb 24 2018

Cryptos Feb 11 2018.PNG:

 

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WTI Crude: Forecast for Feb/Mar

WTI met my targets of 62 and 59 from the 64-65 levels. What’s next? Here is an update:

The US output is spiking as projected in my December forecast. It is expected to cross 11 Mbpd sooner than expected (Bloomberg). This will push US to the top slot among oil producing countries, above both Russia & Saudi Arabia.

I see no let up in the US shale production though elsewhere (Middle-East & Venezuela) production could be affected due to tensions & uncertain geo-political situations. The US should be able to make up for most of the production loss in other countries so any constraints on the supply side is unlikely.

What do charts say? The weekly chart is in real bad shape with the MACD & Stochastic RSI pointing to further potential losses. WTI bounced exactly at the 20 week MA and I do not expect it to last long.. May be it can peep into the low 60’s but should resume bearishness soon. (of course any forecast has to have a qualifier and in this case it is going to be “subject to the current mid-east tensions not escalating further”)

WTI weekly Feb 11 2018.PNG

The daily chart is no better though some signs of oversold status may be visible soon. Nevertheless, WTI broke the 50 DMA on Friday and is distinctly bearish unless it sets up a weekly close above 61.30 again

WTI daily Feb 11 2018.PNG

Based on both macro fundamentals and technical factors, I have 80-90% confidence on the forecast which is bearish for the next 8 weeks with the following moving targets:

100 DAY MA (currently at 57.70)         90% probability

200 WEEK MA (currently at 56)          87% probability

200 DAY MA (currently at 52.65)         80% probability

50 WEEK MA (currently at 52.30)       80% probability

Click below for prior forecasts:

WTI – Jan Update (forecasting near term top of 65-66 and potential reversal to 59)

WTI – Dec post (forecasting a run from 56 levels to 60-63 levels before possible reversals)

 

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WTI Crude: An update

The WTI chart from Jan 14 is below.  It indicated WTI was getting extremely overbought. The forecast was for a bearish trend to follow. The key reversal points were identified as Brent 70 -72 and WTI 65-66.

WTi Jan 14 2018

Now the charts are confirming the forecast. WTI hit a peak of 64.90 and subsequently has dropped around 2.5%, below 63.30. I decided to skip the charts this time & rather focus on the results (charts can be boring some times as you know). So here is the update:

WTI Jan 18 2018

The above forecast & targets are for the short term (1 – 5 weeks).  One thing that could change the scenario is a supply disruption. If a major disruption happens & the price spikes, the forecast / targets will be invalid. So I would keep a Stop above 66 for the short position

Click here to read the December ’17 post on WTI crude

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