SPX and NDX

Pretty simple charts. Bearish, self-explanatory. (I posted these charts on StockTwits & Twitter on March 4 and 5)

SPX

SPX March 4 2018

NDX

NDX March 5 2018

Prior note on SPX / SPY and why markets will go down

Latest post on Winning with Simple Charts

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Bitcoin and alt coins – update

Here is a compilation of all the charts / forecasts that I posted on Twitter / StockTwits on the 3rd & 4th of March 2018:

Bitcoin (BTC): Break-out chart, looks good for the bulls

Bitcoin March 3 2018

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls need to quickly reclaim the 50 DMA. Else, in trouble

Ethereum March 4 2018

Litecoin (LTC) – At current prices, may give better returns than ETH in the short run

Litecoin March 4 2018.PNG

Ripple (XRP): Break out of consolidation or a break down?

Ripple March 4 2018

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The parabolic jams & the aftermath

Found two compelling parabolic arc “jams” recently and in both instances, it worked beautifully (and instantly). I am sure this could have been applied to  a lot of stocks & indices considering the bull run we have seen over the last 8 years and the multiple new all time highs in stocks, indices as well as cryptos.

The first one I saw was on ETH (posted to Twitter / StockTwits on Jan 10 2018). What was compelling in this case was that BTC had already started falling while ETH stood strong but clearly the price was getting very close to the curve & so it had no choice but to hit the curve and bite the dust. The forecast chart was posted on Jan 10 and ETH saw a high of 1423 on Jan 13 before falling more than 50% to 700 level by Feb 6.

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

The next one I thought to be interesting was the SPY chart. All 3 indices – SPX, DOW and Nasdaq had similar patterns but I chose to focus on SPY chart and posted this to Twitter / StockTwits on Jan 30, giving the price 1 – 6 weeks to jam against the curve and turn bearish. And the fall started within a week and now I am convinced SPY will soon be hitting the 234 and 218 mark.

SPY Jan 30 2018.PNG

Why 234 & 218? See the current (Feb 12, 2018) forecast on SPY below:

SPY Feb 12 2018.PNG

In my view, the spine of the markets was broken last week and that has absolutely changed the market trend to bearish (not the Long Term trend but the Short Term trend). Blame it on the new Fed chair, inflation, past euphoria, rate hike optimism, politics or profit taking (or the bluemoon-bloodmoon-lunar eclipse) those two days of 1000+ point drops on DOW had certainly shaken the market and changed the market perception.

I expect very big swings & high volatility to continue in February and March and I do not expect a new ATH any time soon as recovering from the lows (and the forecast lows as above) is going to take a lot of time. Having said that, one doesn’t have to be a perma-bear. Though I expect the  market to be overall bearish for the next few weeks, it will provide huge enough swings for smart traders to play both ways, especially with volatile stocks. Happy Trading!

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Cryptos forecast update

Here is the short term forecast update I posted on Twitter / StockTwits on Feb 11.

The forecast period should actually read as “for 2 weeks ending Feb 24 2018

Cryptos Feb 11 2018.PNG:

 

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WTI Crude: Forecast for Feb/Mar

WTI met my targets of 62 and 59 from the 64-65 levels. What’s next? Here is an update:

The US output is spiking as projected in my December forecast. It is expected to cross 11 Mbpd sooner than expected (Bloomberg). This will push US to the top slot among oil producing countries, above both Russia & Saudi Arabia.

I see no let up in the US shale production though elsewhere (Middle-East & Venezuela) production could be affected due to tensions & uncertain geo-political situations. The US should be able to make up for most of the production loss in other countries so any constraints on the supply side is unlikely.

What do charts say? The weekly chart is in real bad shape with the MACD & Stochastic RSI pointing to further potential losses. WTI bounced exactly at the 20 week MA and I do not expect it to last long.. May be it can peep into the low 60’s but should resume bearishness soon. (of course any forecast has to have a qualifier and in this case it is going to be “subject to the current mid-east tensions not escalating further”)

WTI weekly Feb 11 2018.PNG

The daily chart is no better though some signs of oversold status may be visible soon. Nevertheless, WTI broke the 50 DMA on Friday and is distinctly bearish unless it sets up a weekly close above 61.30 again

WTI daily Feb 11 2018.PNG

Based on both macro fundamentals and technical factors, I have 80-90% confidence on the forecast which is bearish for the next 8 weeks with the following moving targets:

100 DAY MA (currently at 57.70)         90% probability

200 WEEK MA (currently at 56)          87% probability

200 DAY MA (currently at 52.65)         80% probability

50 WEEK MA (currently at 52.30)       80% probability

Click below for prior forecasts:

WTI – Jan Update (forecasting near term top of 65-66 and potential reversal to 59)

WTI – Dec post (forecasting a run from 56 levels to 60-63 levels before possible reversals)

 

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WTI Crude: An update

The WTI chart from Jan 14 is below.  It indicated WTI was getting extremely overbought. The forecast was for a bearish trend to follow. The key reversal points were identified as Brent 70 -72 and WTI 65-66.

WTi Jan 14 2018

Now the charts are confirming the forecast. WTI hit a peak of 64.90 and subsequently has dropped around 2.5%, below 63.30. I decided to skip the charts this time & rather focus on the results (charts can be boring some times as you know). So here is the update:

WTI Jan 18 2018

The above forecast & targets are for the short term (1 – 5 weeks).  One thing that could change the scenario is a supply disruption. If a major disruption happens & the price spikes, the forecast / targets will be invalid. So I would keep a Stop above 66 for the short position

Click here to read the December ’17 post on WTI crude

Click here to subscribe to Flourish Alerts

 

 

 

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CRYPTO FORECAST (Jan 20 – Feb 10, 2018)

These forecasts are based on my interpretation of the current charts & technical indicators and the expected short term moves. To avoid clutter, I will exclude the charts from here & will focus just on the forecasts. The forecasts are for the next 3 week period (till Feb 10 2018) and are generally bullish based on what we know right now but should be taken with a pinch of salt as further news and sentiments can drive the prices crazy.

Bitcoin (BTC): As long as bulls defend the 11,000 – 11,200 zone, Bitcoin should be able to test 14500-14700 (or the 50 DMA level). 50 DMA can be a very strong resistance but if that breaks, we will see 17500 in quick time.

On the other hand, what happens if 11,000 breaks? In that event, we may see a re-test of 9700 (which was our January target that was met last week). If 9700 doesn’t hold this time, then hold your breath & be prepared for 7800.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) : Ready to spike. If BTC runs as above, this one should actually gallop. The FIB retracement targets are 2725 & 3050. But it has to cross two hurdle zones (Resistances) to reach our targets: the 1980-2000 zone & the 2200-2220 zone.

The forecast is valid only if BCH does not breach 1650. what happens if it breaches that level? In all likelihood, 1200 level will be tested.

Ethereum (ETH): I have a 2018 forecast of 5,000 for this crypto. But coming to the short term forecast for 3 weeks, I am looking for a decent run to 1300 level first. And if BTC stays on course as per my forecast above, then we should see new highs around 1600-1700 in Feb for ETH. One hurdle to cross: The 50 MA (4 HOUR) zone around 1100-1120.

On the other hand, if the bears get aggressive and are able to break 950-960 decisively, I will be looking for a retest of the 770-800 zone.

Litecoin (LTC): It is sitting pretty & looking pretty but my conviction on this will get better only if two hurdles are cleared. One, a minor resistance at 214, and the other, a major resistance – the 50 DMA around 238. If the 50 DMA is cleared with aplomb and good volume, I will bet on 305 & 375 as targets for Feb. Till then, it is a 50:50 toss up.

However, a break below 145 (not expecting it but just in case it happens), will make it undoubtedly bearish with a target of 105.

Ripple (XRP):  The earlier forecasts (drop to the 1.00 – 1.20 zone from 1.80 as forecast on Jan 1 and then the spike to 1.65 from 0.90 as forecast on Jan 16) have been met already. Now after a small retracement, Ripple looks good for a run to 2.25 (50 DMA) and if that breaks, then to 2.70. One major resistance to cross: 1.70 for this week

Ripple is my favorite crypto and I have a target of $8 – 9 for 2018.  I see 60c-70c as the probable bottom in the worst case scenario this year.

Stellar – Lumen (XLM): This also appears bullish based on current charts and I expect XLM to follow what XRP does. I don’t see much of a change in course between the two. The short term target is 72c and if that breaks, a full FIB retracement to the prior high at 92c is forecast.

The worst case scenario / bottom for XLM this year could be 18-20c in my opinion.

See the links below for the prior forecasts and charts (only few are posted here, others can be found on Twitter & StockTwits)

Click here for the full Crypto post / forecast from Jan 1, 2018

Click here for the subsequent Bitcoin updates

Click here to check out my Crypto15K Portfolio (NEW)

Some recent forecasts

Ripple Forecast from Jan 16 (target 1.65)

Ripple Jan 16 2018

ETH Forecast from Jan 10 and Jan 15

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

Ethereum Jan 15

 

 

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