Happy New Year!
2017 has been an awesome year and I sincerely hope 2018 brings everyone many more blessings. Best wishes to all!
2017 can easily be called as the year of cryptos. Bitcoin’s rise, followed by the rise in other majors like Ethereum, LiteCoin, Ripple and Dash have been truly phenomenal. Now that more and more mainstream attention is drawn to the digital asset / crypto-currency markets making many sideline-watchers take the plunge, can 2018 be the year of consolidation and growth for cryptos? Or will the bubble burst too early? Only time can tell.
I, for one, turned a believer only in 2017. While I believe the blockchain technology is set to grow leaps and bounds, I think the coin / crypto market is destined to see an upheaval with a host of mediocre players vying for attention, competing with the top cryptos like BTC, ETH, LTC and XRP. But as I always tell my folks and followers, if you want to play the crypto market, use only money that you can afford to throw away or lose. If you think Bitcoin can go to $100k, also be prepared for the worst – to see it at 1000 or even zero.. Same with every coin as more & more people chase the notional and so-called “scarce” assets in the hope that some of them will become real assets eventually.
Current short term scenario (at the dawn of 2018) for Bitcoin and other majors:
Bitcoin saw a surge in December 2017, spiked close to $ 20,000 and then fell to test the 50 DMA around 11,000. Then t recovered to 16,000 levels and has seen a drop again to 13,000 levels. So far, the bears have made 4 attempts to break below the 50 DMA, but without much success (see chart below). If they succeed in decisively breaking the 50 DMA this time, Bitcoin could run down to its 100 DMA (9000 – 9300 levels) easily. Since Bitcoin is the leader, it will likely continue to drive the general crypto sentiment which means the other coins could also turn bearish if Bitcoin’s 50 DMA breaks.
So here are my forecasts for the major coins IF Bitcoin breaks the 50 DMA:
BTC (Bitcoin): the 100 DMA zone (9000-9300)
ETH (Ethereum): the 50 DMA zone (540-560)
LTC (Litecoin): The 50 DMA zone (170-180)
XRP (Ripple) – spiked 10x in the last week of December from 20 cents to 2+ dollars. The minimum target now will be its 20 DMA zone (1.10 – 1.20)
And the lone Bitcoin Trust, GBTC, could see its premium vanish and fall to the 900 – 1000 range if Bitcoin crashes to its 100 DMA.
Once again, the above forecasts are subject to Bitcoin breaking below its 50 DMA. If the bulls can defend that level and a bounce ensues, Bitcoin in all likelihood will again fly to 15,000+