CRYPTO FORECAST (Jan 20 – Feb 10, 2018)

These forecasts are based on my interpretation of the current charts & technical indicators and the expected short term moves. To avoid clutter, I will exclude the charts from here & will focus just on the forecasts. The forecasts are for the next 3 week period (till Feb 10 2018) and are generally bullish based on what we know right now but should be taken with a pinch of salt as further news and sentiments can drive the prices crazy.

Bitcoin (BTC): As long as bulls defend the 11,000 – 11,200 zone, Bitcoin should be able to test 14500-14700 (or the 50 DMA level). 50 DMA can be a very strong resistance but if that breaks, we will see 17500 in quick time.

On the other hand, what happens if 11,000 breaks? In that event, we may see a re-test of 9700 (which was our January target that was met last week). If 9700 doesn’t hold this time, then hold your breath & be prepared for 7800.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) : Ready to spike. If BTC runs as above, this one should actually gallop. The FIB retracement targets are 2725 & 3050. But it has to cross two hurdle zones (Resistances) to reach our targets: the 1980-2000 zone & the 2200-2220 zone.

The forecast is valid only if BCH does not breach 1650. what happens if it breaches that level? In all likelihood, 1200 level will be tested.

Ethereum (ETH): I have a 2018 forecast of 5,000 for this crypto. But coming to the short term forecast for 3 weeks, I am looking for a decent run to 1300 level first. And if BTC stays on course as per my forecast above, then we should see new highs around 1600-1700 in Feb for ETH. One hurdle to cross: The 50 MA (4 HOUR) zone around 1100-1120.

On the other hand, if the bears get aggressive and are able to break 950-960 decisively, I will be looking for a retest of the 770-800 zone.

Litecoin (LTC): It is sitting pretty & looking pretty but my conviction on this will get better only if two hurdles are cleared. One, a minor resistance at 214, and the other, a major resistance – the 50 DMA around 238. If the 50 DMA is cleared with aplomb and good volume, I will bet on 305 & 375 as targets for Feb. Till then, it is a 50:50 toss up.

However, a break below 145 (not expecting it but just in case it happens), will make it undoubtedly bearish with a target of 105.

Ripple (XRP):  The earlier forecasts (drop to the 1.00 – 1.20 zone from 1.80 as forecast on Jan 1 and then the spike to 1.65 from 0.90 as forecast on Jan 16) have been met already. Now after a small retracement, Ripple looks good for a run to 2.25 (50 DMA) and if that breaks, then to 2.70. One major resistance to cross: 1.70 for this week

Ripple is my favorite crypto and I have a target of $8 – 9 for 2018.  I see 60c-70c as the probable bottom in the worst case scenario this year.

Stellar – Lumen (XLM): This also appears bullish based on current charts and I expect XLM to follow what XRP does. I don’t see much of a change in course between the two. The short term target is 72c and if that breaks, a full FIB retracement to the prior high at 92c is forecast.

The worst case scenario / bottom for XLM this year could be 18-20c in my opinion.

See the links below for the prior forecasts and charts (only few are posted here, others can be found on Twitter & StockTwits)

Click here for the full Crypto post / forecast from Jan 1, 2018

Click here for the subsequent Bitcoin updates

Click here to check out my Crypto15K Portfolio (NEW)

Some recent forecasts

Ripple Forecast from Jan 16 (target 1.65)

Ripple Jan 16 2018

ETH Forecast from Jan 10 and Jan 15

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

Ethereum Jan 15

 

 

About Venkat Pulakkad

Entrepreneur, management consultant, blogger & forecaster. Founder of Flourish Research Media that provides insights on markets, trading strategies & risk management. Currently an active trader with 20+ years of experience trading Forex, Stocks & Options. Areas of interest: Trend / Swing trading, Macro-tech analysis, building trading strategies, deploying Risk Management techniques, and helping / coaching traders to become successful traders. Twitter link: https://twitter.com/Flourish_Venkat      
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