Crypto 15k update

Crypto 15k Portfolio – updated as of April 1, 2018

Some more planned / pending orders got executed  on Match 18 (4 ETH at 500) and on March 29 (4 ETH at 430, 5 LTC at 120, 2000 XRP at 0.46)

Portfolio status as of Apr 1, 2018

0.50 BTC at 8400 avg                                 4200  (planning to add another 1/3 at 6300)

4000 XRP at 62c avg                                  2480

5000 XLM at 23c avg                                 1150  (planning to add 5000 if it drops to 12- 15c)

10 LTC at 140 avg                                        1400

8 ETH at 465 avg                                         3720

Cash                                                              2,805

TOTAL                                                         15,755

Details of the full portfolio & prior updates can be found here

Posted in crypto, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

SPX at a critical juncture

Some more simple charts that tell us how close SPX is to a make or break (Still within the LT bullish channel but close to breaking a short term channel).

SPX FUTURES – WEEKLY CHART (critical level 50 week MA at 2559). 

SPX Futures March 27 2018

SPY – DAILY CHART (critical level  200 Day MA at 258.7)

SPY March 27 2018.PNG

Winning with Simple Charts (March 25)

SPX & NDX – the short term trend change (March 6)

Posted in charts, Economy, Gold, stocks, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Winning with Simple charts

It is good to keep things simple. Do simple charts always work? Not always but mostly they do… well, provided you have a pair of night vision glasses.

Permabulls, Fund Managers & professional chartists alike didn’t see this market drop coming. Though the economic activity had picked up and the companies have been reporting solid growth on a consistent basis, I was left wondering why these folks weren’t seeing (a) the overvaluation of stocks and (b) the political & administrative troubles in Washington DC as major deterrents to further stock market valuations.

In Jan & early Feb 2018, I observed from Twitter & StockTwits forums, the market participants were bombarded with extremely bullish charts – some simple charts, many looking very complicated (Some folks do believe that unless you make a complicated looking chart, you are not an “expert” chartist:))).

It is true that you can infer a lot from reading a chart but as I always say “you only hear opinions but not the facts, and you hear ONLY perspectives but not the truth” (that applies to my opinions and forecasts too). No chart is 100% conclusive and you can have different views based on different technical indicators – that is why keeping the charts simple and neat assumes great significance. But what is more important is the ability to forecast even before a trend cycle is complete & even before a technical indicator gives you confirmed signals (the difference between a technical trader and a smart-tech trader)

Coming to the point, the ratio of bullish:bearish charts was something like 100:1, with every one calling for new highs. It looked like bears were almost extinct. My contrarian views on the SPX and DOW were:

“not going to see a new high for a few months, not unless we see a major correction”

“while the LT trend may appear bullish, short term trend is clearly set for bearishness”

 AND lastly,

“after 8 years of  Buy the Dips, it is now time to change the theme to Sell the Rips”.

While I did believe that the markets were going to be long term bullish, I felt strongly there was a very big short term opportunity for the bears, with the possibility of a 15-20% correction before the market pulled itself up. Even after President trump indicated he was going to consider tariffs, the perma-bulls were relentless in their calls for new ATHs. But last week, my belief was vindicated to a great extent as the indices tumbled once again, close enough to the Feb lows. (It is not over yet though we may see some short term oversold bounces).

Here is the Statement from Feb 12 on markets:

“In my view, the spine of the markets was broken last week and that has absolutely changed the market trend to bearish (not the Long Term trend but the Short Term trend). Blame it on the new Fed chair, inflation, past euphoria, rate hike optimism, politics or profit taking (or the bluemoon-bloodmoon-lunar eclipse) those two days of 1000+ point drops on DOW had certainly shaken the market and changed the market perception.
I expect very big swings & high volatility to continue in February and March and I do not expect a new ATH any time soon as recovering from the lows (and the forecast lows as above) is going to take a lot of time. Having said that, one doesn’t have to be a perma-bear. Though I expect the  market to be overall bearish for the next few weeks, it will provide huge enough swings for smart traders to play both ways, especially with volatile stocks. Happy Trading!”

(Click here for the full Feb 12 article)

Here I present below some of those simple charts I published since Jan (all of them were posted to Twitter and/or StockTwits on the respective dates):

SPY – Jan 30 (and SPY did fall, breaking the arc within a week)

SPY Jan 30 2018

SPY – Mar 2 (SPY Daily chart – the broken spine and why I believed it was hard to fix)

SPY post MArch 2 2018

SPY March 2 2018

SPX – Mar 4 – The REAL big one for SPX (reversal on the Monthly chart – finally!!)

Decent Correction due. Targets the 50 MONTH MA which is the 2150-2200 zone. (Whether the RSI extremes on the daily & weekly charts worked or not (they haven’t for a while now), I believe the Monthly extremes would certainly work.

SPX March 4 2018

NDX Daily Chart – Mar 5 (Though the stochastics / RSI indicated a reversal was due, this was not a sure-shot thing, especially when MACD was yet to turn bearish. However, considering how bearish SPX was turning out to be and the effect it can eventually have on Nasdaq,  I couldn’t resist forecasting a fall for NDX – the target being the 200 DMA).

Though SPX couldn’t reach new highs, NDX registered a new high but had to eventually follow SPX and DOW.  Now it has fallen 10% from the recent highs and is just 4% away from my target of 6250

NDX March 5 2018

NDX – follow-up chart on March 15

NDX March 15 2018

SMH – March 14 (another simplest of charts that worked beautifully).  I depended only on a couple of momentum indicators and the stock has already hit / exceeded the 50 DMA target projected.. If it doesn’t recover soon, I wonder if the 200 DMA will become a potential target.SMH March 14 2018

IWM March 15

IWM March 15 2018

IWM Marh 22

IWM March 22 2018

FB – Mar 22 chart – I have been bearish from 180+ levels though in this case Cambridge Analytica news turned out to be a good catalyst for the drop. Now targeting 140 & 120 zones if the TL support at 155 breaks. (Focus: the broken MACD on the weekly)

FB March 22 2018

NFLX – as posted to Stocktwits on March 13 with Targets 300 & 275 (did not post the chart but the daily and weekly were heavily overbought. 275 was the 50 DMA then)

NFLX March 13 2018 post

What to expect for April:

There could be some bounce in the last week of March, considering that the quarter end is approaching. But I think the correction is not over yet and I expect any bounce to be short lived. If SPY breaks the Feb lows (it is very close) and NDX fails to find support at the 200 DMA, we can expect bigger drops in the tech stocks in April – notably in FB, TSLA, NFLX, AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, BKNG, AVGO, INTC, MU and QCOM. Of course that means SMH & QQQ will be in further trouble too!

HAPPY TRADING with “Sell (or short) the Rips” as the theme for another month or two!!

 

Posted in charts, Economy, Gold, stocks, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Crypto 15k – update

Following entries were triggered last week, last night and this morning..

Crypto Mch 2018Details of the full portfolio & prior updates can be found here

Posted in bitcoin, crypto, Economy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

SPX and NDX

Pretty simple charts. Bearish, self-explanatory. (I posted these charts on StockTwits & Twitter on March 4 and 5)

SPX

SPX March 4 2018

NDX

NDX March 5 2018

Prior note on SPX / SPY and why markets will go down

Latest post on Winning with Simple Charts

Posted in Economy, Gold, stocks, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bitcoin and alt coins – update

Here is a compilation of all the charts / forecasts that I posted on Twitter / StockTwits on the 3rd & 4th of March 2018:

Bitcoin (BTC): Break-out chart, looks good for the bulls

Bitcoin March 3 2018

Ethereum (ETH) Bulls need to quickly reclaim the 50 DMA. Else, in trouble

Ethereum March 4 2018

Litecoin (LTC) – At current prices, may give better returns than ETH in the short run

Litecoin March 4 2018.PNG

Ripple (XRP): Break out of consolidation or a break down?

Ripple March 4 2018

Posted in bitcoin, crypto, Economy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The parabolic jams & the aftermath

Found two compelling parabolic arc “jams” recently and in both instances, it worked beautifully (and instantly). I am sure this could have been applied to  a lot of stocks & indices considering the bull run we have seen over the last 8 years and the multiple new all time highs in stocks, indices as well as cryptos.

The first one I saw was on ETH (posted to Twitter / StockTwits on Jan 10 2018). What was compelling in this case was that BTC had already started falling while ETH stood strong but clearly the price was getting very close to the curve & so it had no choice but to hit the curve and bite the dust. The forecast chart was posted on Jan 10 and ETH saw a high of 1423 on Jan 13 before falling more than 50% to 700 level by Feb 6.

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

The next one I thought to be interesting was the SPY chart. All 3 indices – SPX, DOW and Nasdaq had similar patterns but I chose to focus on SPY chart and posted this to Twitter / StockTwits on Jan 30, giving the price 1 – 6 weeks to jam against the curve and turn bearish. And the fall started within a week and now I am convinced SPY will soon be hitting the 234 and 218 mark.

SPY Jan 30 2018.PNG

Why 234 & 218? See the current (Feb 12, 2018) forecast on SPY below:

SPY Feb 12 2018.PNG

In my view, the spine of the markets was broken last week and that has absolutely changed the market trend to bearish (not the Long Term trend but the Short Term trend). Blame it on the new Fed chair, inflation, past euphoria, rate hike optimism, politics or profit taking (or the bluemoon-bloodmoon-lunar eclipse) those two days of 1000+ point drops on DOW had certainly shaken the market and changed the market perception.

I expect very big swings & high volatility to continue in February and March and I do not expect a new ATH any time soon as recovering from the lows (and the forecast lows as above) is going to take a lot of time. Having said that, one doesn’t have to be a perma-bear. Though I expect the  market to be overall bearish for the next few weeks, it will provide huge enough swings for smart traders to play both ways, especially with volatile stocks. Happy Trading!

Posted in Economy, Gold, stocks, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Cryptos forecast update

Here is the short term forecast update I posted on Twitter / StockTwits on Feb 11.

The forecast period should actually read as “for 2 weeks ending Feb 24 2018

Cryptos Feb 11 2018.PNG:

 

Posted in bitcoin, crypto, Economy, Gold, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

WTI Crude: Forecast for Feb/Mar

WTI met my targets of 62 and 59 from the 64-65 levels. What’s next? Here is an update:

The US output is spiking as projected in my December forecast. It is expected to cross 11 Mbpd sooner than expected (Bloomberg). This will push US to the top slot among oil producing countries, above both Russia & Saudi Arabia.

I see no let up in the US shale production though elsewhere (Middle-East & Venezuela) production could be affected due to tensions & uncertain geo-political situations. The US should be able to make up for most of the production loss in other countries so any constraints on the supply side is unlikely.

What do charts say? The weekly chart is in real bad shape with the MACD & Stochastic RSI pointing to further potential losses. WTI bounced exactly at the 20 week MA and I do not expect it to last long.. May be it can peep into the low 60’s but should resume bearishness soon. (of course any forecast has to have a qualifier and in this case it is going to be “subject to the current mid-east tensions not escalating further”)

WTI weekly Feb 11 2018.PNG

The daily chart is no better though some signs of oversold status may be visible soon. Nevertheless, WTI broke the 50 DMA on Friday and is distinctly bearish unless it sets up a weekly close above 61.30 again

WTI daily Feb 11 2018.PNG

Based on both macro fundamentals and technical factors, I have 80-90% confidence on the forecast which is bearish for the next 8 weeks with the following moving targets:

100 DAY MA (currently at 57.70)         90% probability

200 WEEK MA (currently at 56)          87% probability

200 DAY MA (currently at 52.65)         80% probability

50 WEEK MA (currently at 52.30)       80% probability

Click below for prior forecasts:

WTI – Jan Update (forecasting near term top of 65-66 and potential reversal to 59)

WTI – Dec post (forecasting a run from 56 levels to 60-63 levels before possible reversals)

 

Posted in Economy, Oil, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

WTI Crude: An update

The WTI chart from Jan 14 is below.  It indicated WTI was getting extremely overbought. The forecast was for a bearish trend to follow. The key reversal points were identified as Brent 70 -72 and WTI 65-66.

WTi Jan 14 2018

Now the charts are confirming the forecast. WTI hit a peak of 64.90 and subsequently has dropped around 2.5%, below 63.30. I decided to skip the charts this time & rather focus on the results (charts can be boring some times as you know). So here is the update:

WTI Jan 18 2018

The above forecast & targets are for the short term (1 – 5 weeks).  One thing that could change the scenario is a supply disruption. If a major disruption happens & the price spikes, the forecast / targets will be invalid. So I would keep a Stop above 66 for the short position

Click here to read the December ’17 post on WTI crude

Click here to subscribe to Flourish Alerts

 

 

 

Posted in Economy, Oil, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment