CRYPTO FORECAST (Jan 20 – Feb 10, 2018)

These forecasts are based on my interpretation of the current charts & technical indicators and the expected short term moves. To avoid clutter, I will exclude the charts from here & will focus just on the forecasts. The forecasts are for the next 3 week period (till Feb 10 2018) and are generally bullish based on what we know right now but should be taken with a pinch of salt as further news and sentiments can drive the prices crazy.

Bitcoin (BTC): As long as bulls defend the 11,000 – 11,200 zone, Bitcoin should be able to test 14500-14700 (or the 50 DMA level). 50 DMA can be a very strong resistance but if that breaks, we will see 17500 in quick time.

On the other hand, what happens if 11,000 breaks? In that event, we may see a re-test of 9700 (which was our January target that was met last week). If 9700 doesn’t hold this time, then hold your breath & be prepared for 7800.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) : Ready to spike. If BTC runs as above, this one should actually gallop. The FIB retracement targets are 2725 & 3050. But it has to cross two hurdle zones (Resistances) to reach our targets: the 1980-2000 zone & the 2200-2220 zone.

The forecast is valid only if BCH does not breach 1650. what happens if it breaches that level? In all likelihood, 1200 level will be tested.

Ethereum (ETH): I have a 2018 forecast of 5,000 for this crypto. But coming to the short term forecast for 3 weeks, I am looking for a decent run to 1300 level first. And if BTC stays on course as per my forecast above, then we should see new highs around 1600-1700 in Feb for ETH. One hurdle to cross: The 50 MA (4 HOUR) zone around 1100-1120.

On the other hand, if the bears get aggressive and are able to break 950-960 decisively, I will be looking for a retest of the 770-800 zone.

Litecoin (LTC): It is sitting pretty & looking pretty but my conviction on this will get better only if two hurdles are cleared. One, a minor resistance at 214, and the other, a major resistance – the 50 DMA around 238. If the 50 DMA is cleared with aplomb and good volume, I will bet on 305 & 375 as targets for Feb. Till then, it is a 50:50 toss up.

However, a break below 145 (not expecting it but just in case it happens), will make it undoubtedly bearish with a target of 105.

Ripple (XRP):  The earlier forecasts (drop to the 1.00 – 1.20 zone from 1.80 as forecast on Jan 1 and then the spike to 1.65 from 0.90 as forecast on Jan 16) have been met already. Now after a small retracement, Ripple looks good for a run to 2.25 (50 DMA) and if that breaks, then to 2.70. One major resistance to cross: 1.70 for this week

Ripple is my favorite crypto and I have a target of $8 – 9 for 2018.  I see 60c-70c as the probable bottom in the worst case scenario this year.

Stellar – Lumen (XLM): This also appears bullish based on current charts and I expect XLM to follow what XRP does. I don’t see much of a change in course between the two. The short term target is 72c and if that breaks, a full FIB retracement to the prior high at 92c is forecast.

The worst case scenario / bottom for XLM this year could be 18-20c in my opinion.

See the links below for the prior forecasts and charts (only few are posted here, others can be found on Twitter & StockTwits)

Click here for the full Crypto post / forecast from Jan 1, 2018

Click here for the subsequent Bitcoin updates

Click here to check out my Crypto15K Portfolio (NEW)

Some recent forecasts

Ripple Forecast from Jan 16 (target 1.65)

Ripple Jan 16 2018

ETH Forecast from Jan 10 and Jan 15

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

Ethereum Jan 15

 

 

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Crypto 15k Portfolio

Constituted a model Crypto portfolio & added a new page for Crypto 15K portfolio. You can check out the details here:

 

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Other Cryptos – ETH, XRP and ZEC

Here are some of the crypto charts / forecasts I posted recently on StockTwits (Handle @Flourish) & Twitter (Handle: @Flourish_Venkat)

So far, things have moved according to expectations though further selling pressure is needed to meet the final targets. All the forecasts are looking good so far but I don’t want to get carried away. Knowing cryptos, they can anytime turn around and spike up. The good thing is I am not short and rather I am waiting with entry targets to buy on dips)

Ethereum (ETH) I think we won with this parabolic chart by getting out of ETH at the right time. Now the latest weekly candle is jamming against the parabolic curve. A break below the curve is inevitable & bearish. (I will review ETH again if it gets below 900).

My post / chart dated Jan 10 2018

Ethereum Jan 10 2018

Today’s chart (Price is set to drop below the parabolic curve. 1425 current High)

Ethereum Jan 15

ZCASH (ZEC) –  was expecting that trend line break (630 level) this morning. And that has happened now!! Target zone remains at 530-550

Zcash Jan 15

RIPPLE (XRP) – Another day, another drop for Ripple (my favorite crypto). Here is the post / chart from Jan 10 again.

Ripple Jan 10 2018

And this is the current chart update (posted today on Twitter). The 50 DMA moved up and we are getting close to the target buy zone.

Ripple Jan 15 2018

Happy Trading!

What about the leader, Bitcoin? Click here for the latest forecast

 

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Bitcoin mid-Jan Update (update 2)

Update 2 (Jan 15, 2018)

Bitcoin price forecast: My journey since Dec 2017 and what I am waiting for.

Patience paid off last time and so, I am going to wait for my prices again. NO chasing :))

Bitcoin Jan 15

This Dec 21 chart helped me last time (for Bitcoin re-entry):

Bitcoin Dec 21

Previous update (update 1 dated Jan 14 2018)

Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be gaining momentum. It did bounce at the 50 DMA & then ran to 17,000 but since then, has broken below the 50 DMA once again.

 

Keeping the fundamentals and the craze for cryptos aside, now that the 50 DMA has been conclusively broken, I expect continued selling pressure on Bitcoin for some time until it finds a floor in Jan / Feb. This is not to say there will be no interim bounces – after all, a daily trading range of 10-20 % is very normal for Bitcoin.

The chart below reflects my current forecast for Bitcoin with targets for Jan & Feb. The bearish targets of course are subject to 13,000 level being broken decisively. (I do not hold any BTC currently but will start buying if it gets to the 9000 – 10000 range)

Bitcoin Jan 14 (1)

To read the original post dated Jan 1, 2018, click here

 

 

 

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Natty has been playing naughty

The finicky behavior of Natgas continues as we head into the winter. First it was the “winter warmer than normal” forecast from November that drove the price down from 3.20 to 2.60. Then came that dramatic turnaround just before Christmas when snow storms were to hit the East & mid-west US and colder weather was forecast for many parts of the US.  Since then, prices have continued their upward journey and as of Jan 12, Natty has traced back all of it December losses.

Now that the prices are once again back at the November peak, what do short term technicals say? Let us take a peek with the momentum oscillators on the 4 HR chart. This post focuses on the next short term move hence I have chosen to discuss the 4 HR chart.

Chart 1: Price chart (4 HOUR) with Keltner Channel and Moving Averages

NG Jan 14

Chart 2: Stochastic RSI (4 HOUR)

NG Jan 14 2018 RSI

Chart 3: CCI (4 HOUR)

NG Jan 14 2018 CCI

Chart 4: MACD (4 HOUR)

NG Jan 14 2018 MACD

SUMMARY

While the weather forecasts may continue to rule the roost in the short run, technicals especially the short term momentum oscillators indicate we are nearing an overbought condition. I expect NG to reverse soon, possibly after hitting the Nov peak of 3.23. My short term target is 2.97 – 3.02 (and my confidence level in bearishness is 75 %)

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Bitcoin mid-Jan Update

Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be gaining momentum. It did bounce at the 50 DMA & then ran to 17,000 but since then, has broken below the 50 DMA once again.

Further to the original post made here on Jan 1 2018, I had published two chart updates for Bitcoin on Twitter & StockTwits, on Jan 3 and Jan 9. For easy reference, I am posting all the 3 charts here:

Original chart from Jan 1 2018. (the full post can be read here)

bitcoin Jan 1

Chart Update posted on Jan 3

Bitcoin Jan 3 2018.PNG

Chart Update posted on Jan 9 (the first target of 12700 was met on Jan 11)

Bitcoin Jan 9

Now here is the latest Update (Jan 14, 2018)

Keeping the fundamentals and the craze for cryptos aside, now that the 50 DMA has been conclusively broken, I expect continued selling pressure on Bitcoin for some time until it finds a floor in Jan / Feb. This is not to say there will be no interim bounces – after all, a daily trading range of 10-20 % is very normal for Bitcoin.

The chart below reflects my current forecast for Bitcoin with targets for Jan & Feb. The bearish targets of course are subject to 13,000 level being broken decisively. (I do not hold any BTC currently but will start buying if it gets to the 9000 – 10000 range)

Bitcoin Jan 14 (1)

 

 

 

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Next move for Bitcoin & Alt-coins

Happy New Year!

2017 has been an awesome year and I sincerely hope 2018 brings everyone many more blessings. Best wishes to all!

2017 can easily be called as the year of cryptos. Bitcoin’s rise, followed by the rise in other majors like Ethereum, LiteCoin, Ripple and Dash have been truly phenomenal.  Now that more and more mainstream attention is drawn to the digital asset / crypto-currency markets making many sideline-watchers take the plunge, can 2018 be the year of consolidation and growth for cryptos? Or will the bubble burst too early? Only time can tell.

I, for one, turned a believer only in 2017. While I believe the blockchain technology is set to grow leaps and bounds, I think the coin / crypto market is destined to see an upheaval with a host of mediocre players vying for attention, competing with the top cryptos like BTC, ETH, LTC and XRP. But as I always tell my folks and followers, if you want to play the crypto market, use only money that you can afford to throw away or lose. If you think Bitcoin can go to $100k, also be prepared for the worst – to see it at 1000 or even zero.. Same with every coin as more & more people chase the notional and so-called “scarce” assets in the hope that some of them will become real assets eventually.

Current short term scenario (at the dawn of 2018) for Bitcoin and other majors:

Bitcoin saw a surge in December 2017, spiked close to $ 20,000 and then fell to test the 50 DMA around 11,000. Then t recovered to 16,000 levels and has seen a drop again to 13,000 levels. So far, the bears have made 4 attempts to break below the 50 DMA, but without much success (see chart below). If they succeed in decisively breaking the 50 DMA this time, Bitcoin could run down to its 100 DMA (9000 – 9300 levels) easily. Since Bitcoin is the leader, it will likely continue to drive the general crypto sentiment which means the other coins could also turn bearish if Bitcoin’s 50 DMA breaks.

bitcoin Jan 1

So here are my forecasts for the major coins IF Bitcoin breaks the 50 DMA: 

BTC (Bitcoin): the 100 DMA zone (9000-9300)

ETH (Ethereum): the 50 DMA zone (540-560)

LTC (Litecoin): The 50 DMA zone (170-180)

XRP (Ripple) – spiked 10x in the last week of December from 20 cents to 2+ dollars. The minimum target now will be its 20 DMA zone (1.10 – 1.20)

And the lone Bitcoin Trust, GBTC, could see its premium vanish and fall to the 900 – 1000 range if Bitcoin crashes to its 100 DMA.

Once again, the above forecasts are subject to Bitcoin breaking below its 50 DMA. If the bulls can defend that level and a bounce ensues, Bitcoin in all likelihood will again fly to 15,000+

HAPPY TRADING!

 

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BABA – appears bullish medium term

Flourish Alerts – click here if you want to flourish & grow!

BABA looks bullish for the medium term after hitting a low of 165 recently. The upward surge seems quite bullish and we may see the short term target of 183 met soon. BABA has been firing on all cylinders with a tremendous growth in revenues. Fundamentals and technicals currently seem to favor an UP move. For Jan / Feb, I have a target of 190+

BABA Dec 5

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WTI Crude

OPEC delivers on its promise of planned output cuts along with Russia this time. However, US shale output has been picking up and the crude production in the U.S reached 9.68 mbpd recently and is almost on par with the top two – Saudi Arabia & Russia. The year 2018 could see some pressure on crude prices despite OPEC cuts as the US keeps increasing its output, encouraged by the 100% jump in crude prices from the 2016 lows.

However for the short term, I expect crude prices to increase and WTI may hit 60-63 before a reversal driven by the increasing US output. The chart below of course is a 4 Hour chart and talks only about a very short term target (for Dec).

WTI Dec 7 2017

 

 

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Tesla – can it live up to its name?

Short term volatility is in full swing for this cult stock. Medium term is questionable especially with the delays in Model 3 deliveries. 285 is a critical support that bulls will need to defend. If not, medium term target = 240

TSLA Nov 29

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